What 102% of asking really means in Montecito

Every week someone asks us whether a home that sold for 102% of asking was overpriced, underpriced or simply lucky. The honest answer is that the number on its own tells you very little. A sale-to-list ratio measures how close the final price landed to the price the seller chose, so it says as much about the strategy as about the market.

What the ratio actually measures

In Montecito this summer, homes listed between $3M and $6M closed at an average of 102% of their final asking price. Homes above $8M closed at 96%. That gap is not because cheaper homes are more desirable. It is because sellers in the upper bracket tend to start higher and adjust later, while well-advised sellers in the middle bracket price precisely and let competition do the rest.

A ratio above 100% usually means the price was right, not that the buyer overpaid.

How to use it before you write an offer

Ask your advisor for the ratio on the last ten comparable sales within half a mile, not the town average. Look at days on market alongside it: a home at 98% after 9 days is a very different signal from 98% after 120 days. If comparables are running hot, a clean offer at asking with a short escrow often beats a higher offer full of conditions.

And if a home has sat for six weeks, the ratio is your permission to negotiate. Quietly, with evidence, and with respect for the seller who still has to say yes.